MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 29

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

4:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.5

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME40%1.6xG+153fair+192mktModel lean+5.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+281fair+318mkt+2.3%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+192fair+139mkt-7.7%

O2.5 59%BTTS 62%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.7–1.8

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME37%1.7xG+172fair+210mktModel lean+4.5%

DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+320mkt+0.5%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY39%1.8xG+157fair+128mkt-5.0%

O2.5 67%BTTS 69%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.4–1.3

TORToronto FCHOME38%1.4xG+165fair+164mkt-0.2%

DRWDraw28%—xG+257fair+284mkt+1.9%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY34%1.3xG+192fair+176mkt-1.9%

O2.5 52% · mkt 58%BTTS 57%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.7–1.5

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME41%1.7xG+144fair+144mkt+0.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+292fair+288mkt-0.3%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY33%1.5xG+199fair+197mkt-0.2%

O2.5 62%BTTS 64%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.3

CLBColumbus CrewHOME44%1.6xG+127fair+106mkt-4.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+300mkt+2.0%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY29%1.3xG+246fair+281mkt+2.6%

O2.5 54% · mkt 59%BTTS 58%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.5–1.6

DCD.C. UnitedHOME35%1.5xG+190fair+261mktModel lean+6.8%

DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+289mkt+0.3%

LAFCLAFCAWAY40%1.6xG+153fair+116mkt-6.8%

O2.5 60% · mkt 56%BTTS 63%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG2.5–1.4

MIAInter Miami CFHOME60%2.5xG-151fair-192mkt-5.7%

DRWDraw20%—xG+402fair+460mkt+2.1%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.4xG+400fair+513mkt+3.7%

O2.5 75%BTTS 70%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG2.1–1.4

MINMinnesota United FCHOME53%2.1xG-112fair-114mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw23%—xG+337fair+333mkt-0.2%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY24%1.4xG+311fair+320mkt+0.5%

O2.5 67%BTTS 67%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG2.0–1.4

NSHNashville SCHOME51%2.0xG-104fair-111mkt-1.6%

DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+332mkt+0.6%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.4xG+295fair+311mkt+0.9%

O2.5 65%BTTS 65%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.7–1.3

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME46%1.7xG+117fair-123mkt-8.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+283fair+335mkt+3.1%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.3xG+260fair+371mktModel lean+6.5%

O2.5 57%BTTS 60%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.1–2.2

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME16%1.1xG+523fair+572mkt+1.2%

DRWDraw21%—xG+376fair+444mkt+2.6%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY63%2.2xG-170fair-198mkt-3.6%

O2.5 64%BTTS 60%

Apple TV

9:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.2

COLColorado RapidsHOME52%1.9xG-110fair+108mktModel lean+4.2%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+305mkt+0.0%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY23%1.2xG+336fair+268mkt-4.3%

O2.5 59% · mkt 60%BTTS 60%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG2.1–1.2

PORPortland TimbersHOME57%2.1xG-134fair-145mkt-1.9%

DRWDraw22%—xG+345fair+373mkt+1.3%

ATXAustin FCAWAY20%1.2xG+393fair+412mkt+0.8%

O2.5 65%BTTS 63%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG2.0–1.3

SDSan Diego FCHOME52%2.0xG-110fair-106mkt+1.0%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+333mkt+0.3%

LALA GalaxyAWAY24%1.3xG+313fair+288mkt-1.6%

O2.5 65%BTTS 65%

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).