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MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 29, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 445 on ML, 252 of 445 on Over 2.5, 197 of 445 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 29

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–2
xG1.6–1.5
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗40%1.6xG+152fair+196mktModel lean+5.8%
Draw26%—xG+281fair+298mkt+1.1%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+193fair+142mkt-7.2%
O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 62% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–3
xG1.7–1.7
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME37%1.7xG+172fair+213mktModel lean+4.9%
Draw24%—xG+310fair+316mkt+0.3%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✓39%1.7xG+157fair+127mkt-5.2%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 69% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 7–1
xG2.5–1.4
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✓60%2.5xG-149fair-220mkt-8.8%
Draw20%—xG+400fair+504mkt+3.4%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.4xG+398fair+567mktModel lean+5.1%
O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 70% · mkt 69% ✓1H O1.5 52% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–0
xG1.5–1.6
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME35%1.5xG+189fair+299mktModel lean+9.5%
Draw26%—xG+285fair+299mkt+0.9%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗39%1.6xG+153fair+102mkt-10.1%
O2.5 60% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–2
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗41%1.7xG+144fair+164mkt+3.1%
Draw26%—xG+292fair+288mkt-0.3%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY34%1.5xG+198fair+175mkt-2.8%
O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 64% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.4–1.3
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✗38%1.4xG+165fair+161mkt-0.6%
Draw28%—xG+257fair+278mkt+1.5%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY34%1.3xG+192fair+182mkt-1.2%
O2.5 52% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 35% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–0
xG1.7–1.3
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✗46%1.7xG+117fair-141mkt-12.4%
Draw26%—xG+283fair+357mktModel lean+4.2%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.3xG+259fair+411mktModel lean+8.3%
O2.5 57% ✗BTTS 60% · mkt 62% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–3
xG1.1–2.2
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME16%1.1xG+519fair+623mkt+2.3%
Draw21%—xG+374fair+438mkt+2.5%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓63%2.2xG-168fair-207mkt-4.7%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 58% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 4–0
xG2.0–1.4
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓51%2.0xG-103fair-106mkt-0.6%
Draw24%—xG+320fair+332mkt+0.6%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.4xG+294fair+294mkt+0.0%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 65% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–3
xG2.1–1.4
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗53%2.1xG-111fair-109mkt+0.6%
Draw23%—xG+336fair+325mkt-0.6%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY24%1.4xG+310fair+308mkt-0.1%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.9–1.2
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓52%1.9xG-109fair+107mkt+3.9%
Draw25%—xG+304fair+300mkt-0.3%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY23%1.2xG+334fair+278mkt-3.4%
O2.5 59% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 60% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 40% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–1
xG2.0–1.3
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME✓52%2.0xG-110fair-119mkt-2.0%
Draw23%—xG+327fair+355mkt+1.4%
LALA GalaxyAWAY24%1.3xG+312fair+324mkt+0.7%
O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG2.1–1.2
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME✗57%2.1xG-133fair-146mkt-2.3%
Draw23%—xG+344fair+375mkt+1.5%
ATXAustin FCAWAY20%1.2xG+391fair+415mkt+0.9%
O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✓
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).