MLS Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

7:00 PM ET

xG1.7–1.4

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME44%1.7xG+128fair+102mkt-5.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+291fair+310mkt+1.2%

DALFC DallasAWAY31%1.4xG+227fair+279mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 60%BTTS 63%

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).