MLS Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 30, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 442 on ML, 252 of 442 on Over 2.5, 197 of 442 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 1–3

xG1.6–1.3

Match page →

Columbus CrewHOME✗44%1.6xG+128fair+125mkt-0.7%

Draw27%—xG+271fair+283mkt+0.9%

New England RevolutionAWAY29%1.3xG+242fair+241mkt-0.2%

O2.5 54% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗

Apple TV

FT · 3–3

xG1.7–1.4

Match page →

St. Louis CITY SCHOME✗44%1.7xG+129fair+124mkt-1.1%

Draw25%—xG+293fair+281mkt-0.8%

FC DallasAWAY31%1.4xG+224fair+249mkt+2.2%

O2.5 61% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗

Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).