MLS Match Board — Friday, September 4, 2026

Every MLS match on Friday, September 4, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, September 4, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 437 on ML, 252 of 437 on Over 2.5, 197 of 437 on BTTS.

Friday, September 4

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 0–0

xG1.6–1.3

Match page →

New York City FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+139fair+229mktModel lean+11.5%

Draw27%—xG+270fair+272mkt+0.2%

Nashville SCAWAY31%1.3xG+222fair+134mkt-11.7%

O2.5 55% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 59% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 37% ✓

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Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).