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MLS Match Board — Saturday, September 12, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, September 12, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 12, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 437 on ML, 252 of 437 on Over 2.5, 197 of 437 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 12

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 0–1
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗48%1.8xG+107fair-114mkt-5.0%
Draw25%—xG+293fair+355mkt+3.5%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY26%1.3xG+281fair+303mkt+1.4%
O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 71% ✗1H O1.5 40% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–0
xG1.8–1.4
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗48%1.8xG+110fair+132mktModel lean+4.6%
Draw25%—xG+304fair+284mkt-1.3%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY28%1.4xG+264fair+220mkt-3.8%
O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 63% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–3
xG1.9–1.7
Match page →
CINFC CincinnatiHOME✗42%1.9xG+141fair+128mkt-2.3%
Draw23%—xG+326fair+332mkt+0.3%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY35%1.7xG+186fair+204mkt+2.1%
O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 70% ✓1H O1.5 49% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG2.2–1.4
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗53%2.2xG-113fair+113mktModel lean+6.2%
Draw22%—xG+349fair+331mkt-0.9%
NSHNashville SCAWAY25%1.4xG+307fair+235mkt-5.3%
O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 69% · mkt 72% ✓1H O1.5 48% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 3–0
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓48%1.8xG+108fair-103mkt-2.5%
Draw25%—xG+302fair+331mkt+1.7%
TORToronto FCAWAY27%1.3xG+271fair+283mkt+0.8%
O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 68% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 4–2
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓49%1.9xG+104fair+115mkt+2.3%
Draw24%—xG+311fair+301mkt-0.7%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY27%1.4xG+273fair+252mkt-1.6%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 65% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG2.2–1.4
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✓53%2.2xG-114fair-111mkt+0.8%
Draw22%—xG+348fair+341mkt-0.4%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY24%1.4xG+311fair+309mkt-0.1%
O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 48% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–1
xG1.3–1.9
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME26%1.3xG+290fair+366mktModel lean+4.1%
Draw25%—xG+308fair+339mkt+1.8%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗50%1.9xG+101fair-126mkt-5.9%
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.1
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓51%1.8xG-103fair-139mkt-7.4%
Draw26%—xG+291fair+347mkt+3.2%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY24%1.1xG+324fair+419mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 56% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 58% · mkt 58% ✗1H O1.5 38% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–2
xG1.6–1.5
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗40%1.6xG+147fair+120mkt-5.0%
Draw26%—xG+288fair+277mkt-0.7%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY34%1.5xG+196fair+256mktModel lean+5.7%
O2.5 60% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✗41%1.7xG+142fair+135mkt-1.2%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+300mkt+0.6%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY33%1.5xG+202fair+210mkt+0.9%
O2.5 61% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓44%1.6xG+127fair+156mktModel lean+5.0%
Draw27%—xG+269fair+268mkt-0.1%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY29%1.2xG+246fair+198mkt-4.7%
O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 58% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 36% ✓
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).