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MLS Match Board — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 437 on ML, 252 of 437 on Over 2.5, 197 of 437 on BTTS.

Wednesday, September 9

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–2
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME✗40%1.7xG+151fair+161mkt+1.5%
Draw25%—xG+293fair+299mkt+0.4%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY35%1.5xG+188fair+171mkt-2.2%
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 65% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.3–1.3
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME34%1.3xG+193fair+268mktModel lean+6.9%
Draw29%—xG+245fair+284mkt+2.9%
NSHNashville SCAWAY✗37%1.3xG+171fair+114mkt-9.8%
O2.5 48% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 54% · mkt 59% ✓1H O1.5 33% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.5–1.3
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✓39%1.5xG+157fair+167mkt+1.5%
Draw28%—xG+264fair+276mkt+0.9%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY34%1.3xG+198fair+178mkt-2.4%
O2.5 53% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–3
xG1.8–1.5
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗44%1.8xG+126fair+128mkt+0.4%
Draw25%—xG+308fair+320mkt+0.7%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY31%1.5xG+221fair+209mkt-1.2%
O2.5 65% · mkt 65% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 5–0
xG2.4–1.5
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓55%2.4xG-124fair-146mkt-3.9%
Draw21%—xG+376fair+391mkt+0.6%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY24%1.5xG+324fair+391mkt+3.2%
O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 68% ✗1H O1.5 52% ✓
FS1 · Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.6–1.4
Match page →
NYCNew York City FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+138fair+171mktModel lean+5.2%
Draw26%—xG+281fair+277mkt-0.3%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY32%1.4xG+216fair+174mkt-4.8%
O2.5 58% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.9–1.5
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗47%1.9xG+113fair+105mkt-1.9%
Draw24%—xG+318fair+307mkt-0.6%
DALFC DallasAWAY29%1.5xG+244fair+276mkt+2.5%
O2.5 66% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.6–1.0
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓49%1.6xG+106fair+108mkt+0.5%
Draw28%—xG+262fair+289mkt+1.9%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY24%1.0xG+319fair+282mkt-2.4%
O2.5 48% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 52% · mkt 58% ✓1H O1.5 33% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.3–1.5
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME32%1.3xG+217fair+165mkt-6.2%
Draw28%—xG+263fair+267mkt+0.3%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY✗41%1.5xG+145fair+187mktModel lean+6.1%
O2.5 53% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 58% · mkt 57% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG2.2–1.8
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗47%2.2xG+113fair+147mktModel lean+6.4%
Draw22%—xG+363fair+337mkt-1.3%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY32%1.8xG+217fair+174mkt-5.0%
O2.5 77% ✗BTTS 76% · mkt 77% ✓1H O1.5 55% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–0
xG2.1–1.3
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME✓56%2.1xG-126fair-210mkt-12.0%
Draw22%—xG+345fair+460mktModel lean+4.6%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY22%1.3xG+357fair+583mktModel lean+7.2%
O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 65% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 46% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG1.7–1.6
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME✗39%1.7xG+153fair+154mkt+0.1%
Draw25%—xG+301fair+305mkt+0.3%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY36%1.6xG+181fair+177mkt-0.6%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 69% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–3
xG1.9–1.5
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME✗47%1.9xG+114fair-115mkt-6.6%
Draw24%—xG+317fair+352mkt+1.9%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY29%1.5xG+243fair+317mktModel lean+5.2%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 3–0
xG2.6–1.1
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓70%2.6xG-232fair-251mkt-1.7%
Draw18%—xG+464fair+512mkt+1.4%
LALA GalaxyAWAY12%1.1xG+705fair+725mkt+0.3%
O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 49% ✓
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).