MLS Match Board — Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Every MLS match on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.

Tuesday, October 6

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 3–1

xG1.6–1.7

Match page →

Chicago Fire FCHOME35%1.6xG+186fair+209mkt+2.6%

Draw25%—xG+302fair+314mkt+0.7%

Vancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗40%1.7xG+149fair+131mkt-3.1%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 70% ✓1H O1.5 44% · mkt 47% ✓

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Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).