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MLS Match Board — Saturday, October 10, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, October 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 10

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
1:00 PM ET
xG1.7–1.3
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME46%1.7xG+118fair+105mkt-3.0%
Draw26%—xG+279fair+311mkt+2.0%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY28%1.3xG+260fair+269mkt+0.7%
O2.5 56%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 38%
Apple TV
2:30 PM ET
xG1.8–1.2
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME51%1.8xG-104fair-105mkt-0.3%
Draw25%—xG+302fair+314mkt+0.7%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY24%1.2xG+315fair+314mkt-0.1%
O2.5 59% · mkt 60%BTTS 60%1H O1.5 40%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.9–1.6
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME45%1.9xG+122fair+151mktModel lean+5.1%
Draw24%—xG+323fair+320mkt-0.2%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY31%1.6xG+219fair+176mkt-4.9%
O2.5 69%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.5
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME43%1.7xG+135fair+135mkt+0.1%
Draw25%—xG+295fair+300mkt+0.3%
DALFC DallasAWAY32%1.5xG+211fair+208mkt-0.3%
O2.5 62%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 42%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG2.5–1.6
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME58%2.5xG-139fair-213mkt-9.9%
Draw20%—xG+407fair+481mkt+2.5%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY22%1.6xG+352fair+572mktModel lean+7.2%
O2.5 78%BTTS 74%1H O1.5 55%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG2.0–1.3
Match page →
NENew England RevolutionHOME51%2.0xG-105fair+101mkt+1.5%
Draw24%—xG+318fair+315mkt-0.2%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY25%1.3xG+304fair+285mkt-1.2%
O2.5 63%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 43%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.4
Match page →
ORLOrlando City SCHOME42%1.7xG+138fair+123mkt-2.8%
Draw26%—xG+285fair+319mkt+2.1%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY32%1.4xG+213fair+219mkt+0.7%
O2.5 59%BTTS 62%1H O1.5 40%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG1.9–1.6
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME44%1.9xG+129fair+174mktModel lean+7.3%
Draw24%—xG+318fair+305mkt-0.8%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY32%1.6xG+209fair+157mkt-6.5%
O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
7:30 PM ET
xG2.4–1.2
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME62%2.4xG-165fair-197mkt-4.1%
Draw20%—xG+394fair+442mkt+1.8%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY18%1.2xG+471fair+569mkt+2.6%
O2.5 70%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 48%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.2–1.6
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME28%1.2xG+259fair+304mkt+3.1%
Draw27%—xG+272fair+297mkt+1.7%
NSHNashville SCAWAY45%1.6xG+121fair-100mkt-4.9%
O2.5 54% · mkt 55%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 37%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.1
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME48%1.6xG+110fair+121mkt+2.5%
Draw27%—xG+274fair+287mkt+0.9%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY26%1.1xG+292fair+245mkt-3.5%
O2.5 53% · mkt 57%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 36%
Apple TV
8:30 PM ET
xG1.7–1.8
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME37%1.7xG+172fair+149mkt-3.4%
Draw24%—xG+316fair+324mkt+0.5%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY39%1.8xG+155fair+175mkt+2.9%
O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%
Apple TV
9:30 PM ET
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME47%1.8xG+113fair+105mkt-1.8%
Draw25%—xG+297fair+304mkt+0.4%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.3xG+258fair+277mkt+1.4%
O2.5 61%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 41%
Apple TV
10:30 PM ET
xG1.6–1.6
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME37%1.6xG+169fair+155mkt-2.0%
Draw25%—xG+298fair+286mkt-0.8%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY38%1.6xG+166fair+186mkt+2.6%
O2.5 64% · mkt 59%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).