MLS Match Board — Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 437 on ML, 252 of 437 on Over 2.5, 197 of 437 on BTTS.

Wednesday, October 21

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

7:00 PM ET

xG2.3–1.6

Match page →

FC CincinnatiHOME53%2.3xG-111fair-132mkt-4.3%

Draw21%—xG+369fair+358mkt-0.5%

D.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.6xG+284fair+376mktModel lean+5.0%

O2.5 75%BTTS 73% · mkt 67%1H O1.5 53%

Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).