Serie A Match Board — Saturday, August 22, 2026
Every Serie A match on Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · how the model graded
ML2-2−0.9u
Over 2.54-0+1.8u
BTTS4-0+2.7u
Season · all graded matches
ML5-3+0.1u
Over 2.56-2+1.8u
BTTS7-1+4.7u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.
Saturday, August 22
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–1
Proj1.9–0.9
INTInternazionaleHOME✓60%1.9proj-153fair—mkt—DRWDraw24%—proj+317fair—mkt—
MONMonzaAWAY16%0.9proj+540fair—mkt—O2.5 52% ✓BTTS 50% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–1
Proj1.0–1.5
UDIUdineseHOME25%1.0proj+300fair+380mktModel lean+4.1%DRWDraw28%—proj+251fair+261mkt+0.8%
COMOComoAWAY✗47%1.5proj+115fair-106mkt-5.0%O2.5 46% · mkt 45% ✓BTTS 51% · mkt 49% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 0–2
Proj1.1–1.3
GENGenoaHOME28%1.1proj+252fair+345mktModel lean+5.9%DRWDraw30%—proj+233fair+227mkt-0.5%
NAPNapoliAWAY✓42%1.3proj+140fair+112mkt-5.6%O2.5 43% · mkt 39% ✓BTTS 49% · mkt 44% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 0–1
Proj1.1–1.1
PARParmaHOME✗35%1.1proj+186fair+185mkt-0.1%DRWDraw32%—proj+217fair+206mkt-1.1%
CAGCagliariAWAY33%1.1proj+200fair+211mkt+1.2%O2.5 38% · mkt 39% ✓BTTS 46% · mkt 46% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).