Serie A Match Board — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Every Serie A match on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · how the model graded
ML3-1+1.0u
Over 2.52-2−0.1u
BTTS3-1+2.0u
Season · all graded matches
ML5-3+0.1u
Over 2.56-2+1.8u
BTTS7-1+4.7u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.
Sunday, August 23
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 0–1
Proj1.1–1.2
FROFrosinoneHOME34%1.1proj+195fair+640mktModel lean+20.4%DRWDraw31%—proj+225fair+384mktModel lean+10.2%
JUVJuventusAWAY✓35%1.2proj+183fair-193mkt-30.6%O2.5 41% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 49% · mkt 52% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 0–2
Proj1.3–1.0
VENVeneziaHOME✗44%1.3proj+129fair+111mkt-3.8%DRWDraw31%—proj+228fair+238mkt+1.0%
LECLecceAWAY26%1.0proj+286fair+332mkt+2.7%O2.5 40% · mkt 43% ✓BTTS 47% · mkt 51% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 2–1
Proj1.2–1.1
ATAAtalantaHOME✓39%1.2proj+155fair-161mkt-22.5%DRWDraw31%—proj+224fair+353mktModel lean+8.8%
SASSassuoloAWAY30%1.1proj+233fair+514mktModel lean+13.7%O2.5 40% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 53% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 1–2
Proj1.1–1.5
TORTorinoHOME25%1.1proj+294fair+347mkt+3.0%DRWDraw28%—proj+259fair+257mkt-0.2%
MILAC MilanAWAY✓47%1.5proj+114fair+102mkt-2.8%O2.5 49% · mkt 43% ✗BTTS 53% · mkt 48% ✓
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).