Serie A Match Board — Saturday, August 29, 2026
Every Serie A match on Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Season · all graded matches
ML5-3+0.1u
Over 2.56-2+1.8u
BTTS7-1+4.7u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–1.2
FIOFiorentinaHOME36%1.2proj+178fair-134mkt-21.3%DRWDraw30%—proj+231fair+316mktModel lean+6.2%
FROFrosinoneAWAY34%1.2proj+196fair+432mktModel lean+15.0%O2.5 43% · mkt 51%BTTS 50%
Paramount+
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.4–1.4
MONMonzaHOME36%1.4proj+179fair+247mktModel lean+7.0%DRWDraw28%—proj+263fair+239mkt-1.9%
UDIUdineseAWAY37%1.4proj+173fair+140mkt-5.1%O2.5 54% · mkt 42%BTTS 58%
Paramount+
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.1
SASSassuoloHOME45%1.5proj+120fair+136mkt+3.2%DRWDraw28%—proj+258fair+247mkt-0.9%
TORTorinoAWAY27%1.1proj+277fair+247mkt-2.3%O2.5 49% · mkt 47%BTTS 54%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.4–0.7
JUVJuventusHOME51%1.4proj-104fair-360mkt-27.3%DRWDraw30%—proj+230fair+569mktModel lean+15.3%
PARParmaAWAY19%0.7proj+432fair+1314mktModel lean+11.7%O2.5 35% · mkt 57%BTTS 40%
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).