Champions League Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. Our ratings here are thin. Clubs play eight league-phase matches a season, so the model carries about one match of evidence per club against six in a domestic league — and a club new to the competition has none at all. So this board shows our line beside the books' and stops there: no edge, no lean, until those ratings pool a club's domestic form. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.
Tuesday, September 8
MatchupProbProjFairMkt
Club BruggeHOME53%2.3proj-114fair+164mktDraw22%—proj+363fair+273mkt
Aston VillaAWAY25%1.5proj+297fair+183mktO2.5 73% · mkt 56%BTTS 71% · mkt 62%
CBSSN · Paramount+
AEK AthensHOME49%2.0proj+104fair-120mktDraw23%—proj+326fair+321mkt
LASK LinzAWAY28%1.5proj+262fair+364mktO2.5 67% · mkt 57%BTTS 68% · mkt 64%
Paramount+
LilleHOME49%2.0proj+104fair+133mktDraw23%—proj+326fair+268mkt
Real BetisAWAY28%1.5proj+262fair+237mktO2.5 67% · mkt 54%BTTS 68% · mkt 59%
Paramount+
Real MadridHOME62%2.5proj-163fair-154mktDraw20%—proj+410fair+370mkt
InternazionaleAWAY18%1.3proj+443fair+451mktO2.5 74%BTTS 69% · mkt 64%
Paramount+
Borussia DortmundHOME60%2.3proj-152fair-122mktDraw21%—proj+384fair+322mkt
VillarrealAWAY19%1.3proj+428fair+367mktO2.5 70%BTTS 66% · mkt 63%
CBSSN · Paramount+
FC PortoHOME46%1.8proj+116fair+454mktDraw25%—proj+300fair+320mkt
Manchester CityAWAY29%1.4proj+248fair-135mktO2.5 62% · mkt 54%BTTS 64% · mkt 55%
Paramount+
Wednesday, September 9
MatchupProbProjFairMkt
BarcelonaHOME60%2.5proj-147fair-730mktDraw20%—proj+397fair+1163mkt
Feyenoord RotterdamAWAY20%1.4proj+392fair+2315mktO2.5 74%BTTS 70% · mkt 51%
Paramount+
VfB StuttgartHOME47%2.0proj+112fair-334mktDraw24%—proj+323fair+633mkt
Viking FKAWAY29%1.5proj+244fair+1000mktO2.5 68%BTTS 68% · mkt 59%
CBSSN · Paramount+
NapoliHOME20%1.0proj+410fair+426mktDraw25%—proj+298fair+293mkt
ArsenalAWAY55%1.8proj-124fair-122mktO2.5 53% · mkt 49%BTTS 54% · mkt 51%
Paramount+
LiverpoolHOME43%1.7proj+134fair-127mktDraw25%—proj+294fair+329mkt
Atlético MadridAWAY32%1.5proj+214fair+387mktO2.5 62% · mkt 58%BTTS 64% · mkt 59%
Paramount+
Sporting CPHOME58%2.1proj-137fair-109mktDraw22%—proj+347fair+310mkt
GalatasarayAWAY20%1.2proj+404fair+330mktO2.5 64% · mkt 58%BTTS 62% · mkt 60%
CBSSN · Paramount+
Paris Saint-GermainHOME77%3.2proj-334fair-1202mktDraw14%—proj+638fair+1776mkt
Slovan BratislavaAWAY10%1.2proj+952fair+4685mktO2.5 81%BTTS 66% · mkt 37%
Paramount+
Thursday, September 10
MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FenerbahceHOME47%2.0proj+112fair+246mktDraw24%—proj+323fair+272mkt
AS RomaAWAY29%1.5proj+244fair+126mktO2.5 68% · mkt 54%BTTS 68% · mkt 57%
CBSSN · Paramount+
PSV EindhovenHOME52%2.2proj-107fair-199mktDraw22%—proj+352fair+425mkt
Shakhtar DonetskAWAY26%1.5proj+281fair+584mktO2.5 72%BTTS 71% · mkt 57%
Paramount+
Bayern MunichHOME70%3.1proj-239fair-666mktDraw15%—proj+549fair+1109mkt
Bodo/GlimtAWAY14%1.4proj+609fair+1794mktO2.5 84%BTTS 74% · mkt 57%
Paramount+
ComoHOME47%2.0proj+112fair-104mktDraw24%—proj+323fair+307mkt
RB LeipzigAWAY29%1.5proj+244fair+312mktO2.5 68%BTTS 68% · mkt 61%
CBSSN · Paramount+
Manchester UnitedHOME47%2.0proj+112fair-582mktDraw24%—proj+323fair+855mkt
Sabah FKAWAY29%1.5proj+244fair+2298mktO2.5 68%BTTS 68% · mkt 51%
Paramount+
Slavia PragueHOME37%1.7proj+168fair+168mktDraw25%—proj+307fair+259mkt
LensAWAY38%1.7proj+163fair+185mktO2.5 66% · mkt 53%BTTS 68% · mkt 58%
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).