Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026
Top hits spot: Yandy Díaz
Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is hitting .278 H/PA against righties this year — and .282 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .318 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Shane Bieber, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .235 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318), hot bat.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .264 into an arm tough on the same side (.171).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (67) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (67) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .260 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (67) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.179), hot bat.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (67) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.179).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
- RHP Griffin Canning has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .243 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .280 against righties this year.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Junior Caminero (TB), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Brooks Lee (MIN), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Josh Bell (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Colt Keith (DET), Mike Yastrzemski (ATL), Sean Keys (TOR), Victor Caratini (MIN), and José Fermín (STL).
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.