Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 29, 2026)?

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matt Wilkinson. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 29, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 29, 2026: Ildemaro Vargas (100), Luis Arraez (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Bryce Eldridge (94), Justin Foscue (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 29, 2026?

No — Ildemaro Vargas didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Justin Foscue (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year. Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .244 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Matt Wilkinson has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 29, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 68%

Full slate

175/30657%

season 58%

Top call Drake Baldwin came through. Ildemaro Vargas didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–0

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–2

LADaway

DEThomeTop matchup75 Final · 3–2

CWSaway

MINhomeTop matchup72 Final · 6–2

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–17

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup80 Final · 3–4

SEAaway

TORhomeTop matchup86 Final · 7–1

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup73 Final · 8–3

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup86 Final · 2–6

HOUaway

NYMhomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–7

SDaway

TBhomeTop matchup80 Final · 1–2

COLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–9

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–5

TEXaway

MILhomeTop matchup93 Final · 2–7

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup94 Final · 5–3

BALaway

ATHhomeTop matchup79 Final · 4–2

PHIaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting68 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 374 shownScore

180 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsAZ· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCIN· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T1
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsCIN· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
4
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T4
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T4
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T4
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T4
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T4
Jared Young1B
NYMvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T4
Adley RutschmanC
BOS@NYY· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T4
Dustin HarrisLF
SD@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
12
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T12
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T12
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T12
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T12
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T12
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T12
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T12
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #43
T12
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T12
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T12
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T12
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T12
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T12
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T12
Ty France1B
SD@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T12
William ContrerasC
MILvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T12
Jake MangumCF
PIT@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T12
Liam HicksC
TBvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T12
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T12
Manny Machado3B
SD@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T12
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T12
Luis LaraRF
MILvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T12
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T12
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T12
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T12
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T12
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T12
Carson KellyC
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T12
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T12
Nick Loftin3B
KC@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T12
Christian YelichDH
MILvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T12
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T12
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T12
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T12
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T12
Connor Norby2B
COL@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T12
Myles StrawCF
TORvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T12
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T12
Brady House3B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T12
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T12
TJ FriedlCF
CIN@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #281
T12
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #283
T12
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #286
T12
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #292
T12
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #294
T12
Josh Rojas3B
KC@CLE· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
58
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T58
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T58
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T58
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #7
T58
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T58
Jonah CoxCF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T58
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T58
Lars NootbaarDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T58
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T58
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T58
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T58
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T58
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T58
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T58
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T58
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T58
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T58
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T58
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T58
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T58
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T58
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T58
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T58
Cole CarriggCF
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T58
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T58
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T58
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T58
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T58
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T58
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T58
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T58
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T58
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T58
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T58
Jahmai JonesDH
BOS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T58
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T58
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T58
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T58
James McCannC
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T58
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T58
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T58
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T58
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T58
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T58
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T58
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T58
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T58
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T58
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T58
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T58
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T58
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T58
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T58
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T58
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T58
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T58
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T58
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T58
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T58
Jake Burger1B
TEX@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T58
George SpringerDH
TORvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T58
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T58
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T58
Jordan LawlarCF
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T58
Josh BellDH
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T58
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T58
Donovan Walton2B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T58
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T58
Willi Castro2B
COL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T58
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T58
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T58
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T58
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T58
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #181
T58
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T58
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T58
Jordan BeckLF
COL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T58
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T58
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T58
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T58
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T58
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T58
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T58
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T58
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@CLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T58
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T58
Javier BáezSS
DETvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T58
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T58
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T58
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T58
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T58
Cody Freeman3B
TEX@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T58
Grant McCrayCF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T58
Walker JenkinsCF
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T58
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T58
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T58
Joe MackC
MIA@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T58
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T58
Max ClarkCF
DETvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T58
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T58
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T58
Taylor WardDH
SEA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T58
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T58
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T58
Connor WongC
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #266
T58
Colton CowserCF
BAL@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #268
T58
Alek ThomasCF
LAD@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #272
T58
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #274
T58
Travis d'ArnaudC
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #275
T58
David FryRF
CLEvsKC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #277
T58
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #280
T58
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #287
T58
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #288
T58
Joshua BáezLF
STLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #297
T58
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #300
T58
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #301
T58
Austin WellsC
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #302
T58
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #304
T58
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #306
T58
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T58
Lars NootbaarDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T58
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T58
Mickey GasperDH
BOS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, August 29, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (PHI) and Drake Baldwin (ATL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matt Wilkinson. The righty is hitting .301 H/PA against lefties this year — and .160 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Matt Wilkinson has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .421 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Matt Wilkinson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (PHI) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.111).
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a strong bat at .251 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238), hot bat.
Bryce Eldridge (SF) (94) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
Justin Foscue (TEX) (93) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Zach Neto (LAA) (92) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .238 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (87) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a solid bat at .246 into an arm tough on the same side (.208).
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (87) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .267 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Matt Wilkinson has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).

Platoon edges to target

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
Justin Foscue (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.
Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .244 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Bryce Eldridge (SF), Bryce Harper (PHI), Héctor Rodríguez (CIN), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Alonso (BAL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Henry Bolte (ATH), Corey Seager (TEX), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ildemaro Vargas finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 29, 2026)?: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matt Wilkinson. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 29, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 29, 2026: Ildemaro Vargas (100), Luis Arraez (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Bryce Eldridge (94), Justin Foscue (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 29, 2026?: No — Ildemaro Vargas didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Justin Foscue (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year. Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .244 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Matt Wilkinson has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Bryce Eldridge (SF), Bryce Harper (PHI), Héctor Rodríguez (CIN), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Alonso (BAL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Henry Bolte (ATH), Corey Seager (TEX), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.