Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 28, 2026)?

Jonah Cox (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kohl Drake. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 28, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, August 28, 2026: Jonah Cox (100), Luke Keaschall (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Henry Bolte (100), Bryce Eldridge (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 28, 2026?

No — Jonah Cox didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jonah Cox (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cody Bellinger (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Zack Gelof (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Moisés Ballesteros (LAA). LHP Quinn Mathews has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jared Triolo (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, August 28, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 28, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 28, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 68%

Full slate

158/27059%

season 58%

Top call Luke Keaschall came through. Jonah Cox didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–8

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup96 Final · 2–1

LADaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–9

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup77 Final · 3–0

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–1

HOUaway

NYMhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–9

SDaway

TBhomeTop matchup90 Final · 1–8

SEAaway

TORhomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–6

COLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup93 Final · 1–6

TEXaway

MILhomeTop matchup93 Final · 7–4

CWSaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–4

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–3

PHIaway

LAAhomeTop matchup89 Final · 4–3

BALaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–6

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting70 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 340 shownScore

164 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
George SpringerDH
TORvsSEA· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
2
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@CHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T2
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsCOL· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T2
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T2
Lars NootbaarDH
AZ@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T2
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@ATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T2
Christian YelichDH
MILvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T2
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T2
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
10
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T10
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T10
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T10
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T10
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T10
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T10
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T10
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T10
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T10
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsTEX· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T10
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T10
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T10
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T10
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T10
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T10
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T10
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T10
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T10
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T10
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T10
William ContrerasC
MILvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T10
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T10
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T10
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T10
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T10
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T10
Kody Clemens2B
MINvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T10
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T10
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T10
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T10
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T10
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T10
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T10
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T10
James McCannC
AZ@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T10
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T10
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T10
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T10
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T10
David Hamilton3B
MILvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T10
Héctor RodríguezRF
CIN@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T10
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T10
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T10
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T10
Zac VeenLF
COL@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T10
José FermínLF
STLvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T10
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T10
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T10
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #223
T10
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T10
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T10
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T10
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsHOU· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
63
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T63
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T63
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T63
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T63
Brice Turang2B
MILvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T63
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T63
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T63
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T63
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T63
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T63
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T63
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T63
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T63
Tommy White3B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T63
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T63
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T63
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T63
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T63
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T63
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T63
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T63
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T63
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T63
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T63
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T63
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T63
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T63
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T63
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T63
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T63
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T63
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T63
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T63
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T63
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T63
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T63
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T63
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T63
Josh BellDH
MINvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T63
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T63
Cole CarriggCF
COL@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T63
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T63
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T63
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T63
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T63
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T63
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T63
Nick Yorke3B
PIT@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T63
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T63
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T63
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T63
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T63
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T63
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T63
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T63
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T63
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T63
Willi Castro2B
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T63
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T63
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T63
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T63
Carter JensenC
KC@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T63
Walker JenkinsCF
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T63
JJ BledayLF
CIN@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T63
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T63
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T63
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T63
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T63
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T63
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T63
Daulton VarshoCF
HOU@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T63
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T63
Max ClarkCF
DETvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T63
Yainer DiazC
HOU@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T63
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T63
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T63
Cole Young2B
SEA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T63
Brady House3B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T63
Derek HillCF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T63
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T63
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #220
T63
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T63
Christian Koss3B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T63
Jorge MateoSS
TBvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T63
Harry FordC
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #236
T63
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #237
T63
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T63
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T63
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T63
Joshua BáezLF
STLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T63
Josh Rojas3B
KC@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T63
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T63
Danny JansenC
TEX@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T63
Nolan Gorman3B
STLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T63
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T63
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T63
Brett CallahanLF
DETvsLAD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T63
Myles StrawCF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@DET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Enrique Hernández3B
LAD@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@MIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T63
Colton CowserCF
BAL@ATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, August 28, 2026

Jonah Cox (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, August 28, 2026 board at 100, with Luke Keaschall (MIN) and Drake Baldwin (ATL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jonah Cox

Jonah Cox (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kohl Drake. The righty is hitting .250 H/PA against lefties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Kohl Drake has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kohl Drake. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luke Keaschall (MIN) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500), due to bounce back.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Henry Bolte (ATH) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.471).
Bryce Eldridge (SF) (97) vs LHP Kohl Drake: a solid bat at .246 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (96) vs LHP David Peterson: a strong bat at .254 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210), hot bat.
Cody Bellinger (NYY) (93) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: a solid bat at .249 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.214).
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (93) vs LHP Cody Bradford: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.306).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cody Bellinger (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY).
RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Zack Gelof (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH).
RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Moisés Ballesteros (LAA).
LHP Quinn Mathews has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jared Triolo (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT).

Platoon edges to target

Jonah Cox (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), Alec Burleson (STL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Zach Neto (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Luke Keaschall (MIN), Yandy Díaz (TB), Zack Gelof (ATH), Trea Turner (PHI), and Heliot Ramos (NYY).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonah Cox finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 28, 2026)?: Jonah Cox (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kohl Drake. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 28, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, August 28, 2026: Jonah Cox (100), Luke Keaschall (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Henry Bolte (100), Bryce Eldridge (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 28, 2026?: No — Jonah Cox didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jonah Cox (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cody Bellinger (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Henry Bolte (ATH), Zack Gelof (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Moisés Ballesteros (LAA). LHP Quinn Mathews has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jared Triolo (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), Alec Burleson (STL), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Zach Neto (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Luke Keaschall (MIN), Yandy Díaz (TB), Zack Gelof (ATH), Trea Turner (PHI), and Heliot Ramos (NYY).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.