Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The righty is stacking production at — (H+R+RBI)/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 45% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Payton Tolle too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Outman (MIN) (91) vs RHP Erick Fedde: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (91) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (91) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Carson Benge (NYM) (91) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jarren Duran (BOS) (91) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (91) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (91) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up production today
- LHP Payton Tolle has been giving up production to lefties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Adley Rutschman (BAL).
- RHP Erick Fedde has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: James Outman (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).
- RHP Taj Bradley has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Luisangel Acuña (CWS), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Taylor Ward finished with 4 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays