Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, projected for about 0.46 H+R+RBI per plate appearance across 4.7 projected trips. We build the number bottom-up — summing his projection on every component board — so it moves with each of those matchups instead of a single rate, and inherits their tuning.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .460 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (100) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .471 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (98) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .456 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Loftin (KC) (98) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .466 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (92) vs RHP the starter: a league-average bat at .448 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (92) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .455 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .451 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.