Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gerrit Cole. The lefty is going deep on .086 HR/PA against righties this year — and .061 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Gerrit Cole has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .063 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Gerrit Cole. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (95) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: elite bat at .067 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (91) vs RHP Luis Castillo: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (86) vs RHP Michael King: elite bat at .067 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (80) vs RHP Shane Bieber: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (77) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (75) vs RHP Seth Lugo: elite bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (69) vs LHP Reid Detmers: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.