Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is going deep on .077 HR/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walbert Ureña too — .500 across 4 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (78) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (73) vs RHP Max Scherzer: big-time bat at .050 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (61) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (59) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (58) vs RHP Max Scherzer: big-time bat at .053 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (58) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (56) vs LHP Noah Schultz: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
216 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.