Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top rbis spot: Osleivis Basabe
Osleivis Basabe (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The righty is driving in runs at .714 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .714 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 21% of his trips. And Cal Quantrill has been getting lit up by righties lately — .250 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.0 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Cal Quantrill, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs LHP Ian Seymour: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- James McCann (AZ) (100) vs RHP Michael King: an elite bat at .192 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) (97) vs RHP Cristian Javier: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (97) vs LHP Ian Seymour: an elite bat at .165 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.065).
- Manny Machado (SD) (96) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (90) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Osleivis Basabe finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays