Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top rbis spot: Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The righty is driving in runs at .183 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .288 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- James McCann (AZ) (100) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an elite bat at .192 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- Jo Adell (CLE) (99) vs LHP Sean Manaea: an elite bat at .178 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.035), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (98) vs RHP Logan Henderson: an elite bat at .163 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.036).
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) (97) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Owen Caissie (MIA) (95) vs RHP Grant Holmes: an elite bat at .172 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (94) vs RHP Javier Assad: an excellent bat at .149 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .223 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .209 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Sal Stewart finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays