Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Saturday, September 5, 2026
Top rbis spot: Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jeffrey Springs. The righty is driving in runs at .117 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 13% of his trips. And Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .167 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 11 career PA against Jeffrey Springs, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (100) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jordan Walker (STL) (97) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (96) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.261).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (96) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) (95) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .136 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .117 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Cal Raleigh finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays