Who has the best runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 3, 2026)?

Taylor Ward (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 3, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Wednesday, June 3, 2026: Taylor Ward (100), James Outman (91), Sam Antonacci (91), J.P. Crawford (91), Carson Benge (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, June 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ run, against 49% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 49%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 51%

Full slate

91/27034%

season 35%

Top call Taylor Ward came through. James Outman didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–1

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 7–2

DETaway

TBhomeTop matchup87 Final · 8–0

CWSaway

MINhomeTop matchup91 Final · 7–1

NYMaway

SEAhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–3

SDaway

PHIhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–8

BALaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–4

CLEaway

NYYhomeTop matchup91 Final · 5–2

KCaway

CINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–7

TORaway

ATLhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–0

SFaway

MILhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

TEXaway

STLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–4

ATHaway

CHChomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–11

PITaway

HOUhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–11

COLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup91 Final · 7–0

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup87

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

91 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@TB· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #16
T1
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsPIT· 2-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T1
José Ramírez3B
CLE@NYY· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #28
T1
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsTEX· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
5
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@MIN· 4-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #3
T5
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@ATL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T5
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@MIN· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #54
T5
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsCOL· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T5
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsTOR· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T5
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsCOL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T5
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsTOR· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #109
T5
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsPIT· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T5
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsCOL· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #209
T5
Luis TorrensC
NYM@SEA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #223
T5
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsBAL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #224
T5
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsPIT· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #232
T5
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEX@STL· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #248
18
Taylor WardDH
BAL@BOS· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T18
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsNYM· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #4
T18
Carson BengeRF
NYM@SEA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #5
T18
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsBAL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #6
T18
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@SEA· 4-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #13
T18
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #17
T18
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #18
T18
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@AZ· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #24
T18
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #27
T18
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsCOL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T18
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #30
T18
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T18
Blake DunnCF
CINvsKC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #35
T18
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T18
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsDET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T18
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@TB· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T18
Zach ColeLF
HOUvsPIT
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T18
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@HOU· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T18
Andy PagesCF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T18
Juan SotoLF
NYM@SEA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T18
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsBAL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T18
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T18
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsBAL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T18
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T18
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T18
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T18
Dillon DinglerC
DET@TB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T18
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsPIT· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T18
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@HOU· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T18
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@AZ· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T18
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@NYY· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T18
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T18
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@NYY· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T18
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T18
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@CHC· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T18
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@HOU· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T18
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsBAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #117
T18
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T18
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsCOL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T18
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsTEX· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T18
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #129
T18
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsTOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #135
T18
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@AZ· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T18
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCLE· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #142
T18
Liam HicksC
MIA@WSH· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T18
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@CIN
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T18
Ian HappLF
CHCvsATH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T18
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsBAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T18
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsCOL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #159
T18
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsBAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #163
T18
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsSD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T18
Ty France1B
SD@PHI· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T18
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@SEA· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #176
T18
Nick Madrigal3B
LAAvsCOL· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #179
T18
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T18
José FermínLF
STLvsTEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #187
T18
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsDET· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #193
T18
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #195
T18
Jhostynxon GarciaRF
PIT@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T18
Will SmithC
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #202
T18
MJ MelendezDH
NYM@SEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #204
T18
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #211
T18
Michael Massey2B
KC@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #214
T18
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@STL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #218
T18
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@CHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #220
T18
Matt VierlingCF
DET@TB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #227
T18
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@HOU· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #233
T18
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsCOL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
T18
Edouard Julien2B
COL@LAA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #240
T18
Nick Loftin3B
KC@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #244
T18
Jake RogersC
DET@TB· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #252
T18
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@ATL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #256
T18
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #257
T18
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #270

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Taylor Ward (BAL) is the top runs matchup on the Wednesday, June 3, 2026 board at 100, with James Outman (MIN) and Sam Antonacci (CWS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Payton Tolle too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

James Outman (MIN) (91) vs RHP Erick Fedde: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (91) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
J.P. Crawford (SEA) (91) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Carson Benge (NYM) (91) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jarren Duran (BOS) (91) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Trent Grisham (NYY) (91) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) (91) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Taylor Ward finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 3, 2026)?: Taylor Ward (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 3, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Wednesday, June 3, 2026: Taylor Ward (100), James Outman (91), Sam Antonacci (91), J.P. Crawford (91), Carson Benge (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Wednesday, June 3, 2026?: Yes — Taylor Ward got 1 run.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.