Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top runs spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is scoring at .170 R/PA against righties this year — and .290 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jake Irvin, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Olson (ATL) (87) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (75) vs RHP Javier Assad: a strong bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (75) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.308).
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (74) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a solid bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (73) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (71) vs RHP Yohan Ramírez: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (70) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .137 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.