Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top runs spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is scoring at .170 R/PA against righties this year — and .290 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jake Irvin, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) (100) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (97) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .134 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (95) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (88) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (87) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (82) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (79) vs LHP JP Sears: a solid bat at .126 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.059).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Drake Baldwin finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays