Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The righty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .424 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting lit up by righties lately — .400 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Grayson Rodriguez too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (80) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (80) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .125 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (78) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Yohendrick Piñango (TOR) (74) vs RHP Zack Littell: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (73) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.148).
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) (73) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .123 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .216 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .157 against lefties this year.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
198 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.