Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top runs spot: Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The righty is scoring at .158 R/PA against righties this year — and .128 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Zebby Matthews too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Cole Young (SEA) (97) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (85) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .120 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (81) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (78) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Randy Arozarena finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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