Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top runs spot: Brice Turang
Brice Turang (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is scoring at .170 R/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (88) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (87) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (83) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .166 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (81) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (80) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.385).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (79) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (76) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.385).
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .214 against lefties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .114 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.