Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?

Randy Arozarena (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Friday, July 31, 2026: Randy Arozarena (100), Brice Turang (100), Cole Young (97), Jeremy Peña (85), Carter Jensen (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, July 31, 2026?

Yes — Randy Arozarena got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year. Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 31, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 31, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 48%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 47%

Full slate

96/27036%

season 38%

Top call Randy Arozarena came through. Christian Yelich didn't.

Final · 2–0

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup76 Final · 7–8

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–6

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–3

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup69 Final · 6–1

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–2

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup73 Final · 4–1

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–6

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–11

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup85 Final · 1–3

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup83 Final · 6–2

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 13–1

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup81 Final · 0–7

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup66 Final · 9–4

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–3

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

99 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsSF· 1-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T1
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@ATH· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #102
3
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T3
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@ATH· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T3
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsPHI· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T3
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@BAL· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T3
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAD· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #28
T3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsSF· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T3
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBOS· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #47
T3
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPIT· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T3
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TB· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T3
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T3
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T3
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #96
T3
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #113
T3
Javier BáezSS
DET@ATH· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #129
T3
Max ClarkCF
DET@ATH· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #139
T3
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T3
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@ATH· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T3
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTEX· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #223
T3
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #259
22
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsMIN· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T22
Brice Turang2B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T22
Cole Young2B
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #3
T22
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTEX· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T22
Carter JensenC
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #5
T22
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #12
T22
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T22
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@CLE· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T22
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T22
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #24
T22
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@CIN· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #25
T22
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #26
T22
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@CIN· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #31
T22
Dillon DinglerC
DET@ATH· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #35
T22
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T22
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CLE· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T22
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@HOU· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T22
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@CIN· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T22
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@NYM· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #51
T22
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@NYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T22
Jake MangumCF
PIT@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T22
George SpringerDH
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T22
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@ATL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T22
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #70
T22
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T22
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@BAL· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T22
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T22
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsCWS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T22
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T22
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsAZ· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T22
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #97
T22
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T22
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsKC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T22
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@HOU· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T22
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T22
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T22
Josh BellDH
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T22
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #123
T22
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T22
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T22
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #136
T22
Joe MackC
MIA@NYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T22
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #142
T22
Colton CowserCF
BALvsPHI· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T22
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #147
T22
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T22
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #161
T22
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #162
T22
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsSTL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T22
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #169
T22
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@CIN· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #172
T22
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T22
Henry DavisC
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #181
T22
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@NYM· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #185
T22
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@LAA· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #188
T22
Alan RodenRF
MIN@SEA· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #191
T22
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #192
T22
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #195
T22
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #202
T22
Spencer JonesCF
NYY@CHC· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #207
T22
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsMIA· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #208
T22
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@TB· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #212
T22
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsSF· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #214
T22
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsPIT· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #215
T22
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #216
T22
Tim TawaLF
AZ@CLE· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #224
T22
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAD· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #226
T22
Matt McLain2B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #228
T22
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@CLE· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #233
T22
Jase BowenRF
SDvsSF· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
T22
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #240
T22
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #246
T22
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #255
T22
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsKC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #264
T22
Eliezer AlfonzoC
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #270
T22
Jahmai JonesDH
BOS@LAD
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T22
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsPHI· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T22
Lucas SpenceCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Randy Arozarena (SEA) is the top runs matchup on the Friday, July 31, 2026 board at 100, with Brice Turang (MIL) and Cole Young (SEA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The righty is scoring at .158 R/PA against righties this year — and .128 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Zebby Matthews too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
Cole Young (SEA) (97) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (85) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .120 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
Christian Yelich (MIL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
Gleyber Torres (DET) (81) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (78) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Randy Arozarena finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?: Randy Arozarena (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Friday, July 31, 2026: Randy Arozarena (100), Brice Turang (100), Cole Young (97), Jeremy Peña (85), Carter Jensen (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, July 31, 2026?: Yes — Randy Arozarena got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year. Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays