Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, September 5, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Glasnow. The lefty is scoring at .206 R/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Tyler Glasnow has been letting runs score against righties lately — .120 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Tyler Glasnow, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (95) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.029).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (93) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (89) vs RHP Max Scherzer: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (89) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .143 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (85) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .133 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (84) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.217).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .144 against lefties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays