Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, September 5, 2026
Top runs spot: Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jeffrey Springs. The righty is scoring at .144 R/PA against lefties this year — and .210 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .167 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .267 in 15 career PA against Jeffrey Springs. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: an elite bat at .172 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.120).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (95) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.029).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (88) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .143 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Max Scherzer: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (86) vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.171).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (84) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .133 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .144 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Randy Arozarena finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays