Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, September 6, 2026
Top runs spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Christian Scott. The lefty is scoring at .169 R/PA against righties this year — and .308 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Christian Scott has been getting lit up by righties lately — .240 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Christian Scott. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (99) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (97) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (94) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.162).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (93) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .149 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .133 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .137 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (90) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .142 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .144 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays