Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, September 7, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nick Pivetta. The lefty is scoring at .202 R/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Nick Pivetta has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Nick Pivetta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.276).
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (100) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (86) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (85) vs RHP Logan Webb: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Brett Bateman (TOR) (85) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a league-average bat at .110 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (85) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .143 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.129).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (82) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .202 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .159 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .178 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays