Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, September 10, 2026
Top runs spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .166 R/PA against righties this year — and .194 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties lately — .130 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (77) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (74) vs RHP Cristian Javier: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (74) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.038).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (73) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .138 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (72) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .122 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (72) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .133 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (70) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
90 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays