Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is scoring at .181 R/PA against righties this year — and .227 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Michael King has been vulnerable to righties lately — .128 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Michael King. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (86) vs RHP AJ Blubaugh: a strong bat at .141 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (83) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Manny Machado (SD) (79) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a solid bat at .120 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086).
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) (77) vs RHP AJ Blubaugh: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.313).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (75) vs LHP Chris Sale: a strong bat at .139 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (75) vs RHP AJ Blubaugh: a strong bat at .140 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133), hot bat.
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (75) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Manny Machado (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .119 against lefties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .157 against lefties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays