Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, October 3, 2026
Top runs spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Drew Rasmussen. The lefty is scoring at .166 R/PA against righties this year — and .121 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Drew Rasmussen has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .063 in 16 career PA against Drew Rasmussen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Dustin Harris (SD) (80) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .138 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (73) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (70) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (69) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: a strong bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (67) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .131 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (66) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: a solid bat at .123 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (63) vs LHP Parker Messick: a solid bat at .127 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Dustin Harris (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .152 against lefties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays