Best MLB Singles Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top singles spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is lining singles at — 1B/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a single in about 14% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .100 in 10 career PA against Tanner Gordon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (92) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (92) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) (89) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (89) vs LHP Martín Pérez: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (84) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (84) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Where singles fall in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% single park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: James Wood (WSH), Trea Turner (PHI), Rafael Devers (SF), Otto Lopez (MIA), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Jake Burger (TEX).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 0 singles. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.