Best MLB Singles Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Top singles spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is lining singles at — 1B/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a single in about 14% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .467 across 15 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (100) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (100) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Lane Thomas (KC) (100) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (100) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .145 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Rafael Devers (SF), Jackson Chourio (MIL), Gavin Sheets (SD), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Jake Cronenworth (SD), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), Jac Caglianone (KC), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Sean Keys (TOR).
How it played out
9 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 3 singles. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.