Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Nasim Nuñez
Nasim Nuñez (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is running at .106 SB/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 8% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 3.8 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Bieber. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- José Ramírez (CLE) (80) vs RHP Chase Burns: an elite bat at .057.
- José Ramírez (CLE) (79) vs RHP the starter: an elite bat at .064.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an elite bat at .057.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (69) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an elite bat at .049.
- Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) (66) vs LHP Chris Sale: an elite bat at .066.
- Evan Carter (TEX) (64) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an elite bat at .048.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (62) vs RHP the starter: an elite bat at .050.
Platoon edges to target
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .038 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 stolen bases matchups landed at least one stolen base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.