Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Yarbrough. The lefty is racking up bases at .508 TB/PA against lefties this year — and 1.231 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Ryan Yarbrough has been getting squared up by lefties lately — 1.000 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 14 career PA against Ryan Yarbrough. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) (100) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .459 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .433 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (100) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a strong bat at .429 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (99) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .503 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.654), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (95) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a solid bat at .401 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.556).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (91) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .446 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.556).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (90) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a league-average bat at .364 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.656).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .449 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heriberto Hernández (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA).
- LHP Noah Cameron has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ty France (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
- RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU).
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .405 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Spencer Torkelson (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .505 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .399 against righties this year.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .477 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .386 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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