Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top total bases spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is racking up bases at .444 TB/PA against righties this year — and .935 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 50% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jake Irvin, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.438).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (85) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .423 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.406), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (83) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .434 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.577).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (81) vs RHP Grant Holmes: an excellent bat at .542 into an arm tough on the same side (.227).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (81) vs RHP Andre Pallante: a strong bat at .435 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.348).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (80) vs RHP Yohan Ramírez: a solid bat at .408 into an arm tough on the same side (.286).
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (79) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a solid bat at .395 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.647).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Rhett Lowder has been vulnerable to righties — .405 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- LHP Noah Cameron has been vulnerable to lefties — .394 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kody Clemens (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Brooks Lee (MIN).
- RHP Cole Winn has been vulnerable to righties — .393 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Junior Caminero (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
- LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .386 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Miguel Vargas (CWS), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Colson Montgomery (CWS).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .432 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .479 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .523 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.