Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top total bases spot: Cole Young
Cole Young (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The lefty is racking up bases at .399 TB/PA against righties this year — and .563 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been giving up bases to righties lately — .364 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zebby Matthews. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .394 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.591).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .391 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.652).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (96) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: a solid bat at .381 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (96) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .535 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (94) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.591).
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (94) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.524), hot bat.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (93) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Andrew Painter has been getting squared up by righties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- LHP Mitch Bratt has been getting squared up by lefties — .448 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Angel Martínez (CLE).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC).
- RHP Hunter Greene has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
Platoon edges to target
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .399 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .375 against righties this year.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .423 against righties this year.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .372 against lefties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Cole Young finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.