Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top total bases spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .377 TB/PA against righties this year — and .471 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 40% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties lately — .652 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (92) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .518 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- John Rave (KC) (90) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .365 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.652).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (88) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .404 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.923).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (87) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a league-average bat at .341 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.923).
- Jac Caglianone (KC) (84) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .363 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.652).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (81) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .398 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.591).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .477 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.344).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Mitch Bratt has been getting squared up by lefties — .448 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Steven Kwan (CLE), and Travis Bazzana (CLE).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), John Rave (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
- RHP Hunter Greene has been getting squared up by righties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .421 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Hao-Yu Lee (DET), and Dillon Dingler (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .377 against righties this year.
- John Rave (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .471 against righties this year.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .412 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.