Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Top total bases spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is racking up bases at .552 TB/PA against righties this year — and .658 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 48% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties lately — .600 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 9 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ty France (SD) (98) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .507 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (98) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a solid bat at .396 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.167), due to bounce back.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .420 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (92) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .518 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667), hot bat.
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (90) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.222).
- Manny Machado (SD) (87) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .451 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (84) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.615).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Joe Ryan has been getting squared up by righties — .481 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Lane Thomas (KC).
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting squared up by lefties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Taylor Trammell (HOU).
- LHP Joey Cantillo has been vulnerable to lefties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .552 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .377 against righties this year.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .465 against lefties this year.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .412 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .375 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
198 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.