Best MLB Walks Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top walks spot: Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walker Buehler. The lefty is working counts at .144 BB/PA against righties this year — and .163 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Walker Buehler has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .167 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walker Buehler too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Karros (COL) (100) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .113 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.174).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .131 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (87) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a solid bat at .095 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (83) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a solid bat at .099 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (82) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167).
- Riley Greene (DET) (81) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .120 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087), due to bounce back.
- Evan Carter (TEX) (81) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Bryce Eldridge finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays