Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top walks spot: Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard (BOS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Edgardo Henriquez. The lefty is working counts at .129 BB/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a walk in about 9% of his trips. And Edgardo Henriquez has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .250 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Edgardo Henriquez. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .110 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an elite bat at .163 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.158).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (95) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .113 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (95) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
- Cole Young (SEA) (94) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a league-average bat at .070 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (92) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a league-average bat at .080 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (90) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .118 into an arm around league average against the same side (.094).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .203 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .109 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Nick Sogard finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays