Best MLB Walks Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Top walks spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Mitch Bratt. The righty is working counts at .128 BB/PA against lefties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Mitch Bratt has been handing out free passes to lefties lately — .290 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Mitch Bratt. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an elite bat at .162 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Luis Rengifo (SD) (84) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .091 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.290).
- Manny Machado (SD) (81) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .088 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.290).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (76) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a strong bat at .117 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (74) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .099 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (71) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (70) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .114 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .128 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Luis Rengifo (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .091 against lefties this year.
- Manny Machado (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .099 against lefties this year.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .145 against lefties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays