Best MLB Walks Matchups — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Top walks spot: Corey Seager
Corey Seager (TEX) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The lefty is working counts at .116 BB/PA against righties this year — and .107 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Sean Burke has been tough to walk against righties lately — .057 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Burke. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP AJ Smith-Shawver: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Josh Bell (MIN) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .093 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (100) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .112 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.107).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (99) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (96) vs RHP Sean Burke: a solid bat at .098 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.057).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (88) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .093 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (86) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a strong bat at .100 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
Platoon edges to target
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .094 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .186 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Corey Seager finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays