Best MLB Walks Matchups — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP AJ Smith-Shawver. The lefty is working counts at .167 BB/PA against righties this year — and .132 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And AJ Smith-Shawver has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .182 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against AJ Smith-Shawver. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (97) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .111 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.107).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (88) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .119 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (87) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .101 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.109).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .118 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (83) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .106 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.120).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (82) vs RHP AJ Smith-Shawver: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (82) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .101 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.107).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .112 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays