Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, August 27, 2026
Top walks spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The lefty is working counts at .114 BB/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a walk in about 10% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .333 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Spencer Arrighetti too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (96) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: an excellent bat at .120 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (94) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.077).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (93) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: a strong bat at .112 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (93) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .111 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.109).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (87) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .101 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.109).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (77) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: a strong bat at .102 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (76) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .115 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.024).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .114 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .186 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
126 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays