MLS Match Board — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, August 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 16, 2026 · how the model graded

ML3-1+2.0u

Over 2.53-1+0.3u

BTTS3-1+0.5u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 16

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–3

xG1.6–1.3

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+136fair+176mktModel lean+6.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+276fair+283mkt+0.5%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY31%1.3xG+223fair+166mkt-6.7%

O2.5 56% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 62% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 2–1

xG2.2–1.4

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓53%2.2xG-114fair-162mkt-8.5%

DRWDraw22%—xG+347fair+402mkt+2.4%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY24%1.4xG+311fair+452mktModel lean+6.2%

O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 67% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 1–2

xG1.4–1.7

ATXAustin FCHOME30%1.4xG+232fair+203mkt-2.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+278mkt-0.8%

DALFC DallasAWAY✓44%1.7xG+126fair+145mkt+3.4%

O2.5 60% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 0–2

xG1.4–1.8

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME29%1.4xG+242fair+279mkt+2.9%

DRWDraw25%—xG+300fair+299mkt-0.1%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓46%1.8xG+119fair+106mkt-2.8%

O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 63% ✗

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).