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MLS Match Board — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, August 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 16, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 449 on ML, 252 of 449 on Over 2.5, 197 of 449 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 16

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–1
xG2.2–1.4
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓53%2.2xG-114fair-162mkt-8.5%
Draw22%—xG+347fair+402mkt+2.4%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY24%1.4xG+311fair+452mktModel lean+6.2%
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 48% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–3
xG1.6–1.3
Match page →
NYCNew York City FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+136fair+176mktModel lean+6.2%
Draw27%—xG+276fair+283mkt+0.5%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY31%1.3xG+223fair+166mkt-6.7%
O2.5 56% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.4–1.7
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME30%1.4xG+232fair+203mkt-2.9%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+278mkt-0.8%
DALFC DallasAWAY✓44%1.7xG+126fair+145mkt+3.4%
O2.5 60% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–2
xG1.4–1.8
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME29%1.4xG+242fair+279mkt+2.9%
Draw25%—xG+300fair+299mkt-0.1%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓46%1.8xG+119fair+106mkt-2.8%
O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 63% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).