MLS Match Board — Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Every MLS match on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · how the model graded
ML6-9−0.7u
Over 2.510-5+0.6u
BTTS10-5−0.0u
Season · all graded matches
ML161-153+8.7u
Over 2.5189-125−1.6u
BTTS199-115+2.5u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.
Wednesday, August 19
MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 3–3
xG1.4–1.3
TORToronto FCHOME✗38%1.4xG+164fair+146mkt-2.9%DRWDraw28%—xG+255fair+287mkt+2.4%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY34%1.3xG+194fair+197mkt+0.3%O2.5 51% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 56% · mkt 62% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.8–1.2
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗51%1.8xG-103fair-126mkt-4.9%DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+327mkt+2.0%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY24%1.2xG+322fair+379mkt+2.8%O2.5 56% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 60% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.8–1.8
ORLOrlando City SCHOME38%1.8xG+162fair+177mkt+2.0%DRWDraw24%—xG+324fair+319mkt-0.3%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY✓38%1.8xG+161fair+149mkt-1.8%O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 71% · mkt 70% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG2.0–1.8
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗43%2.0xG+131fair+140mkt+1.7%DRWDraw23%—xG+344fair+346mkt+0.1%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY34%1.8xG+193fair+177mkt-1.9%O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 74% · mkt 73% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.9–1.6
CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓44%1.9xG+125fair+101mkt-5.3%DRWDraw24%—xG+315fair+319mkt+0.2%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY32%1.6xG+217fair+269mktModel lean+4.4%O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 66% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–1
xG1.7–1.7
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME37%1.7xG+170fair+181mkt+1.4%DRWDraw25%—xG+302fair+289mkt-0.9%
NSHNashville SCAWAY✓38%1.7xG+162fair+159mkt-0.5%O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 67% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 0–3
xG1.7–1.4
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗43%1.7xG+131fair+168mktModel lean+6.0%DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+277mkt-0.6%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY31%1.4xG+225fair+175mkt-5.6%O2.5 59% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 62% · mkt 62% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.2–1.9
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME24%1.2xG+321fair+310mkt-0.7%DRWDraw25%—xG+306fair+318mkt+0.7%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY✗52%1.9xG-107fair-106mkt+0.1%O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 62% ✓
FS1 · Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG1.9–1.2
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗53%1.9xG-113fair-138mkt-5.0%DRWDraw24%—xG+308fair+342mkt+1.9%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY23%1.2xG+344fair+416mkt+3.1%O2.5 59% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 59% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG2.1–1.1
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗59%2.1xG-142fair-112mktModel lean+5.9%DRWDraw23%—xG+344fair+304mkt-2.2%
ATXAustin FCAWAY19%1.1xG+434fair+352mkt-3.4%O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 58% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.5–1.4
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓39%1.5xG+158fair+159mkt+0.2%DRWDraw27%—xG+266fair+277mkt+0.8%
LAFCLAFCAWAY34%1.4xG+195fair+186mkt-1.1%O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 59% · mkt 61% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 3–4
xG1.6–1.5
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗39%1.6xG+153fair+112mkt-7.8%DRWDraw26%—xG+279fair+294mkt+1.0%
DALFC DallasAWAY34%1.5xG+193fair+269mktModel lean+7.0%O2.5 58% ✓BTTS 62% · mkt 65% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–1
xG1.8–1.5
PORPortland TimbersHOME✓45%1.8xG+123fair+108mkt-3.2%DRWDraw24%—xG+309fair+331mkt+1.3%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY31%1.5xG+225fair+246mkt+1.8%O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 69% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–1
xG1.9–0.9
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗61%1.9xG-158fair-159mkt-0.1%DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+362mkt+1.7%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY15%0.9xG+549fair+495mkt-1.4%O2.5 54% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 51% · mkt 54% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG2.0–1.8
LALA GalaxyHOME✓43%2.0xG+134fair+136mkt+0.5%DRWDraw23%—xG+333fair+308mkt-1.4%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY34%1.8xG+193fair+202mkt+1.0%O2.5 72% ✗BTTS 72% · mkt 69% ✗
FS1 · Apple TV
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).