MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day
Tutorials WizBoard

MLS Match Board — Saturday, September 5, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, September 5, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 5, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 437 on ML, 252 of 437 on Over 2.5, 197 of 437 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 5

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–0
xG2.1–1.3
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓56%2.1xG-126fair-193mkt-10.0%
Draw23%—xG+341fair+421mkt+3.5%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY22%1.3xG+364fair+568mktModel lean+6.6%
O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–0
xG1.5–1.2
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✗43%1.5xG+132fair+134mkt+0.3%
Draw28%—xG+254fair+276mkt+1.6%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY29%1.2xG+248fair+225mkt-2.0%
O2.5 49% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 54% · mkt 62% ✗1H O1.5 33% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.7
Match page →
ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓40%1.8xG+149fair+139mkt-1.7%
Draw24%—xG+315fair+320mkt+0.3%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY36%1.7xG+179fair+192mkt+1.5%
O2.5 68% ✗BTTS 69% · mkt 71% ✗1H O1.5 47% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–0
xG1.3–1.2
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓38%1.3xG+164fair+115mkt-8.7%
Draw29%—xG+245fair+277mkt+2.5%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY33%1.2xG+201fair+266mktModel lean+5.9%
O2.5 48% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 54% · mkt 58% ✗1H O1.5 32% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 4–4
xG1.3–1.4
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME34%1.3xG+198fair+199mkt+0.1%
Draw28%—xG+256fair+291mkt+2.5%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY✗38%1.4xG+161fair+145mkt-2.6%
O2.5 51% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 56% · mkt 65% ✓1H O1.5 35% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.6–1.8
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME34%1.6xG+194fair+140mkt-7.7%
Draw25%—xG+308fair+286mkt-1.4%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✗42%1.8xG+141fair+207mktModel lean+9.0%
O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 4–3
xG2.4–1.0
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✓68%2.4xG-214fair-207mkt+0.7%
Draw19%—xG+425fair+440mkt+0.5%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY13%1.0xG+682fair+602mkt-1.5%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 58% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 0–0
xG2.0–1.4
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗49%2.0xG+104fair-105mkt-2.2%
Draw24%—xG+321fair+337mkt+0.9%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY27%1.4xG+266fair+284mkt+1.3%
O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 66% · mkt 70% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG2.6–1.3
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗66%2.6xG-190fair-259mkt-6.6%
Draw18%—xG+444fair+547mkt+2.9%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY16%1.3xG+521fair+708mkt+3.7%
O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 53% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG1.4–1.6
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME33%1.4xG+200fair+202mkt+0.2%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+283mkt+0.4%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗40%1.6xG+149fair+146mkt-0.4%
O2.5 57% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.7–1.6
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✓39%1.7xG+154fair+166mkt+1.8%
Draw25%—xG+300fair+304mkt+0.3%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY36%1.6xG+181fair+166mkt-2.0%
O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–3
xG2.3–1.1
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗63%2.3xG-170fair-180mkt-1.2%
Draw21%—xG+381fair+407mkt+1.1%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY16%1.1xG+518fair+533mkt+0.4%
O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 5–4
xG1.7–1.6
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME✓41%1.7xG+146fair+152mkt+0.9%
Draw25%—xG+301fair+296mkt-0.3%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY35%1.6xG+190fair+186mkt-0.4%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).