Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?

Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, August 3, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Ty France (100), Junior Caminero (98), Jonathan Aranda (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 3, 2026?

Yes — Jeremy Peña got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year. Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and James Wood (WSH). RHP Shane Bieber has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 68%

Full slate

92/14464%

season 58%

Top call Jeremy Peña came through. Yandy Díaz didn't.

Final · 3–6

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup67 Final · 13–7

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–3

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–1

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup60 Final · 5–10

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup53 Final · 3–1

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 13–9

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting34 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 178 shownScore

93 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@COL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #5
T1
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsSF· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T1
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsTB· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
4
Alec Burleson1B
STL@NYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T4
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T4
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T4
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@MIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T4
Tim TawaLF
AZvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #143
9
Junior Caminero3B
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T9
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T9
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsTB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T9
Richie Palacios2B
TB@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T9
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T9
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T9
James McCannC
AZvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #28
T9
Taylor WallsSS
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T9
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T9
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T9
Willi Castro2B
COLvsTB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T9
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T9
Keibert RuizC
WSH@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T9
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T9
Luis CampusanoC
SD@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T9
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T9
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T9
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T9
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #97
T9
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T9
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #104
T9
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #108
T9
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #109
T9
Austin WellsC
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #117
T9
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T9
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T9
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T9
José FermínLF
STL@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #125
T9
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T9
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T9
Myles StrawRF
TOR@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #141
40
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.4 H, #1
T40
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T40
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T40
Luis RengifoLF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #20
T40
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T40
James WoodRF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T40
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T40
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T40
Kenny PiperC
TB@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T40
Andy PagesCF
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T40
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T40
Jake MangumCF
PIT@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T40
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T40
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T40
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T40
Daylen LileLF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T40
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T40
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T40
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T40
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T40
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T40
Bryan TorresLF
STL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T40
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T40
George SpringerDH
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T40
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T40
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T40
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T40
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T40
Carson KellyC
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T40
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T40
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #81
T40
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T40
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T40
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T40
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T40
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T40
Derek HillCF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #90
T40
Drew GilbertCF
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T40
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #95
T40
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T40
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T40
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #102
T40
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T40
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #105
T40
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T40
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T40
Eliezer AlfonzoC
LAD@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T40
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T40
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T40
Christian Koss3B
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T40
David Hamilton3B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #139
T40
Austin WynnsC
TEXvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #142
T40
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #144
T40
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026

Jeremy Peña (HOU) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, August 3, 2026 board at 100, with Yandy Díaz (TB) and Ty France (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .478 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been tough on righties lately — .154 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .241 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hitter's park.
Ty France (SD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .298 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238).
Junior Caminero (TB) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hitter's park.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (89) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .231 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (87) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .245 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238).
Chandler Simpson (TB) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park, due to bounce back.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
RHP Shane Bieber has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).

Platoon edges to target

Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year.
Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Alec Burleson (STL), James McCann (AZ), Brice Turang (MIL), Andy Pages (LAD), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Victor Mesa Jr. (TB), Manny Machado (SD), Richie Palacios (TB), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and James Wood (WSH).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?: Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, August 3, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Ty France (100), Junior Caminero (98), Jonathan Aranda (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 3, 2026?: Yes — Jeremy Peña got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year. Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and James Wood (WSH). RHP Shane Bieber has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Alec Burleson (STL), James McCann (AZ), Brice Turang (MIL), Andy Pages (LAD), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Victor Mesa Jr. (TB), Manny Machado (SD), Richie Palacios (TB), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and James Wood (WSH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays