Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is hitting .299 H/PA against righties this year — and .474 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been tough on righties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hitter's park.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hitter's park.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (83) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .233 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (77) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis Rengifo (SD) (73) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .256 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (70) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .260 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Chandler Simpson (TB).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Amed Rosario (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Spencer Jones (NYY).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
- RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Rengifo (SD), Ty France (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Luis Rengifo (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .229 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 86.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Brice Turang (MIL), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Alec Burleson (STL), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: James Wood (WSH), Ben Rice (NYY), Manny Machado (SD), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ).
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.