Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Nick Loftin (100), Jeremy Peña (94), Mickey Moniak (92), Ceddanne Rafaela (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 2, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year. Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .234 against lefties this year. Starling Marte (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Luis Urías (TOR). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Loftin (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Starling Marte (KC). RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX). RHP Max Scherzer has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Lars Nootbaar (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 66%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

151/25160%

season 58%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Nick Loftin didn't.

1:35 PM ET

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–4

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–1

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup84 Final · 0–5

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–0

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–10

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 9–1

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–7

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup94 Final · 2–1

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup57 Final · 1–8

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–3

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup70 Final · 11–0

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup72 Final · 4–5

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–7

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 8–4

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 340 shownScore

164 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTEX· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T1
Cole Young2B
SEAvsMIN· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
3
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsKC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T3
Nathaniel LoweDH
CINvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T3
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsCWS· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T3
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
7
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T7
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T7
Andy PagesCF
LADvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T7
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T7
Ty France1B
SDvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T7
Dillon DinglerC
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T7
Eduardo ValenciaC
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T7
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T7
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T7
Josh BellDH
MIN@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T7
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T7
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T7
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T7
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T7
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T7
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T7
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T7
Jake Burger1B
TEX@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T7
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T7
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T7
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T7
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T7
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T7
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T7
Brett SullivanC
COLvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T7
Joe MackC
MIA@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T7
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T7
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #186
T7
Everson PereiraRF
CWS@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T7
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T7
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T7
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T7
Max Muncy3B
LADvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #212
T7
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T7
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T7
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #222
T7
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T7
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T7
José CaballeroSS
NYY@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T7
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
47
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T47
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T47
Starling MarteRF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T47
Salvador PerezDH
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T47
Jake McCarthyCF
COLvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T47
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T47
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T47
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T47
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T47
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T47
George SpringerDH
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T47
Alec Burleson1B
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T47
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T47
Brice Turang2B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T47
Liam HicksC
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T47
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T47
Luis Urías2B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T47
John RaveRF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T47
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T47
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T47
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T47
Otto LopezSS
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T47
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T47
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T47
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T47
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T47
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T47
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T47
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T47
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T47
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T47
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T47
Luke MaileC
KC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T47
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T47
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T47
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T47
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T47
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T47
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T47
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T47
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T47
Willi Castro2B
COLvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T47
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T47
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T47
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T47
Bryan TorresLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T47
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T47
Heliot RamosLF
SF@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T47
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T47
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T47
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T47
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T47
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T47
Taylor WardLF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T47
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T47
Max ClarkCF
DET@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T47
Rafael Devers1B
SF@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T47
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T47
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T47
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T47
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T47
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T47
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T47
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T47
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T47
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T47
Daylen LileLF
WSH@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T47
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T47
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T47
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T47
Nick FortesC
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T47
José FermínLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T47
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T47
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T47
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T47
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T47
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T47
Dane MyersCF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T47
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T47
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T47
Jared Young1B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T47
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T47
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T47
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T47
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T47
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T47
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T47
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T47
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #199
T47
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T47
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T47
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #202
T47
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T47
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T47
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T47
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T47
Keibert RuizC
WSH@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T47
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T47
Alan RodenRF
MIN@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T47
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T47
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T47
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T47
Tim TawaLF
AZ@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T47
Willy AdamesSS
SF@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T47
Evan CarterCF
TEX@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T47
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T47
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T47
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T47
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T47
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T47
Osleivis BasabeSS
SF@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T47
Jake RogersC
BALvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T47
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T47
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T47
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T47
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #264
T47
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@CIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T47
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 board at 100, with Nick Loftin (KC) and Jeremy Peña (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. The lefty is hitting .252 H/PA against lefties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Jake Bennett has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jake Bennett. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nick Loftin (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .255 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hitter's park.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (94) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an elite bat at .313 into an arm tough on the same side (.063), hot bat.
Mickey Moniak (COL) (92) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), hitter's park, hot bat.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (92) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Carter Jensen (KC) (85) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .224 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (84) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.444).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .254 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Luis Urías (TOR).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Loftin (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Starling Marte (KC).
RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX).
RHP Max Scherzer has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Lars Nootbaar (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

Platoon edges to target

Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year.
Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .234 against lefties this year.
Starling Marte (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Nick Loftin (KC) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Mickey Moniak (COL), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Starling Marte (KC), Cole Carrigg (COL), Tommy Edman (LAD), Kody Clemens (MIN), and José Ramírez (CLE).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Nick Loftin (100), Jeremy Peña (94), Mickey Moniak (92), Ceddanne Rafaela (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 2, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year. Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .234 against lefties this year. Starling Marte (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Nick Loftin (KC) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Luis Urías (TOR). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Loftin (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Starling Marte (KC). RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Jake Burger (TEX). RHP Max Scherzer has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Lars Nootbaar (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Mickey Moniak (COL), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Starling Marte (KC), Cole Carrigg (COL), Tommy Edman (LAD), Kody Clemens (MIN), and José Ramírez (CLE).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays