Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kumar Rocker. The righty is hitting .299 H/PA against righties this year — and .474 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Kumar Rocker has been tough on righties lately — .063 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Kumar Rocker. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Lane Thomas (KC) (90) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .225 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .251 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (89) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.444).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (88) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .224 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hitter's park.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (86) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .262 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (84) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm tough on the same side (.156).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Luis Urías (TOR).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Lane Thomas (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).
- RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
- RHP Max Scherzer has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Lane Thomas (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .230 against lefties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Lane Thomas (KC) at 90.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Brandon Lowe (PIT), George Springer (TOR), and Mickey Moniak (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Anthony Seigler (BOS), Nick Kurtz (ATH), José Ramírez (CLE), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.