Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .478 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been tough on righties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (98) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .241 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (96) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), due to bounce back.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (94) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Cole Young (SEA) (92) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .268 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (89) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .260 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs RHP Javier Assad: an elite bat at .304 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (83) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ).
- RHP Joe Ryan has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Nick Loftin (KC), and Jac Caglianone (KC).
- RHP Emerson Hancock has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Eduardo Valencia (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .227 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 98.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Cole Young (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Steven Kwan (CLE), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Wyatt Langford (TEX), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Nick Sogard (BOS).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.