Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?

Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Jackson Merrill (100), Gleyber Torres (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 4, 2026?

No — Jeremy Peña didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .255 against lefties this year. Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Munetaka Murakami (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Max Kepler (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL). RHP Hunter Dobbins has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Luis García Jr. (NYY).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

158/27059%

season 58%

Top call Yandy Díaz came through. Jeremy Peña didn't.

Final · 1–3

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup69 Final · 6–2

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–5

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 0–5

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup76 Final · 0–2

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup58 Final · 2–14

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup97 Final · 2–4

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–8

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–4

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–5

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup93 Final · 4–5

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–7

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–7

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–4

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–0

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

164 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@KC· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
2
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #3
T2
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T2
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsTB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T2
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsWSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T2
Colt Keith3B
DET@SEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T2
Riley GreeneLF
DET@SEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T2
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T2
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T2
Manny Machado3B
SD@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T2
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T2
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T2
Luis TorrensC
NYM@CLE· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T2
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsLAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T2
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T2
Henry BolteCF
ATH@CIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T2
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@SEA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T2
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTOR· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #263
19
Yandy DíazDH
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T19
Dillon DinglerC
DET@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T19
Junior Caminero3B
TB@COL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T19
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T19
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T19
Liam HicksC
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T19
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T19
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T19
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T19
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T19
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T19
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T19
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T19
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T19
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T19
Josh BellDH
MIN@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T19
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T19
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T19
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T19
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T19
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T19
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T19
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T19
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T19
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T19
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T19
William ContrerasC
MILvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T19
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T19
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T19
Freddy FerminC
SD@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T19
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T19
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T19
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T19
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T19
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T19
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T19
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T19
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T19
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T19
Myles StrawRF
TOR@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #261
T19
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T19
Josh LoweLF
LAA@BAL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
61
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T61
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #5
T61
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T61
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T61
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T61
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T61
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T61
Brady House3B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T61
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T61
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T61
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T61
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T61
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T61
Daniel SusacC
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T61
Brice Turang2B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T61
Mike TroutCF
LAA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T61
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T61
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T61
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T61
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T61
Luis RengifoLF
SD@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T61
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T61
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T61
Jake MangumCF
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T61
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T61
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T61
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T61
James McCannC
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T61
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T61
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T61
Zach NetoSS
LAA@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T61
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T61
George SpringerDH
TOR@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T61
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T61
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #86
T61
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #87
T61
Iván HerreraDH
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T61
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T61
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T61
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T61
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T61
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T61
Michael Massey2B
KCvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T61
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T61
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T61
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T61
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #112
T61
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T61
Harry FordC
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T61
Moisés BallesterosC
LAA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T61
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T61
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T61
Masyn WinnSS
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T61
Willy AdamesSS
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T61
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T61
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T61
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T61
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T61
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T61
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T61
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T61
Luis LaraRF
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T61
Travis d'ArnaudC
LAA@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T61
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T61
Brenton DoyleCF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T61
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T61
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T61
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T61
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T61
Pedro PagésC
STL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T61
JJ BledayLF
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T61
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T61
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #205
T61
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T61
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T61
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T61
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T61
Jase BowenRF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T61
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T61
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T61
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T61
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T61
Willi Castro2B
COLvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T61
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T61
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T61
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T61
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T61
Matt McLain2B
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T61
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T61
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T61
Taylor WallsSS
TB@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T61
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T61
Colton CowserCF
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T61
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T61
David Hamilton3B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T61
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #260
T61
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #265
T61
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T61
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T61
Starling MarteRF
KCvsMIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T61
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T61
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsLAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T61
Drew GilbertCF
SF@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T61
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Jeremy Peña (HOU) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 board at 100, with Yandy Díaz (TB) and Jackson Merrill (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .478 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been tough on righties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .241 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Jackson Merrill (SD) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
Gleyber Torres (DET) (100) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (97) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Cole Young (SEA) (94) vs RHP Troy Melton: a strong bat at .253 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.233), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (93) vs RHP Javier Assad: an elite bat at .304 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
Dillon Dingler (DET) (92) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Munetaka Murakami (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS).
RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Max Kepler (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).
RHP Hunter Dobbins has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Luis García Jr. (NYY).

Platoon edges to target

Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .255 against lefties this year.
Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Cole Young (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Wyatt Langford (TEX), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Nick Sogard (BOS).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?: Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Jackson Merrill (100), Gleyber Torres (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 4, 2026?: No — Jeremy Peña didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .255 against lefties this year. Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yandy Díaz (TB) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Munetaka Murakami (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Max Kepler (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL). RHP Hunter Dobbins has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Luis García Jr. (NYY).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Cole Young (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Wyatt Langford (TEX), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Nick Sogard (BOS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays